The Carrying Cost of Deciding
When an opportunity's defensibility comes from being early, the time spent deciding whether to pursue it is not free. Deliberation has a carrying cost, and for timing-based opportunities that cost compounds.
Market-Timing
The Market Someone Else Is Warming
Sometimes the most influential player in a category spends its own resources teaching the audience to want a new kind of tool. A smaller entrant can inherit that demand — if it ships into the surface the education is pointing at.
The Complement Cascade
When adjacent players keep entering a space as complements, they aren't threatening your gap — they're announcing it. The cascade is a clock, not a threat.
The Legibility Threshold
Every market opportunity has a legibility threshold — the point where the gap becomes visible enough to describe, fund, and compete for. The window between 'too early' and 'too visible' is where you want to be.
The Education Arbitrage
When someone else educates your market, they're doing expensive work for free. The question is whether you're positioned to capture it.