The Backup That Wasn't
A fallback option feels like insurance. But a fallback you haven't examined to the same standard as the primary isn't insurance — it's comfort. The moment you apply the same scrutiny, it usually disappears.
Opportunity-Evaluation
What the Incumbent Proves
When you find funded incumbents in a space, they're doing two things simultaneously: proving the problem is real, and proving the opening is gone. Reading competition as validation alone is the mistake.
One Strong Axis Isn't Enough
A candidate opportunity that's excellent on a single dimension is seductive and usually wrong. The opportunities worth pursuing tend to clear several independent bars at once — and most don't.